Saturday, May 26, 2012

Euro- bonds: what are we waiting for?


The debate on Euro-bonds seems stuck somewhere...A Curious Bull-Bear Stalemate. The European Commission's report on the public consultation on the European Commission Green Paper on the feasibility of introducing Stability Bonds showed only 40 responses sic! Basically nobody cares...?

I still contend that Euro-bonds are bonds to be alive. Unless Euro-bonds are launched pretty soon there will be big problems ahead, particularly for the ECB. The latter is indeed likely to incur big losses if Greece were to exit the Euro. The ECB is already running on nominal and fictitious Euro-bonds buying all EU member states bonds, which have to be sterilised on all operations with repo operations. But the recent ECB longer-term refinancing operations cannot go forever. What if Greece exit the Euro?
Euros can still be printed but operations would be far easier if the Euros are backed by Euro-bonds. If investors are at present more concerned about solvency than liquidity, LTRO by the ECB will not help that much. Full scale quantitative easing will be needed and this is definitely more effective with Euro-bonds, that is monetising EU sovereign debt not national one.

If Euro-bonds were adopted borrowing costs for many countries will be lower (along the same lines of when the Euro was introduced) but net costs for Germany will not necessarily be higher. Even if borrowing costs for Germany will be a bit higher then at present (which can be initially compensated), costs of defaults, Euro exits and ECB losses are far higher for everybody, particularly Germany. The costs of not having Euro-bonds could be far higher than the cost of having them.

On the other hand ,the Euro-zone currency union saved Germany’s major banks from insolvency, and German taxpayers from the burden of a massive bailout.  European bank exposure to the PIGS wasn’t altruistic economic development and cooperation funding; it was very often speculative and without due diligence investment. Moreover Germany relies on the EU for exports, so a stable and not in recession area is on its interest.

One variation on the Euro-bonds idea that has gained traction in recent weeks is something called "project bonds". It's not a big deal as it's exactly what was proposed in 1993 by the European Commission President's Delors.  It will not help as the money involved is too little.

Euro-bonds may not resolve the current crisis but  I think would avoid having a bigger one.
I also expect Euro-bonds “soon”.


4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Without Eurobonds Greece borrowed money (from so-called investors) until these people (now suddenly called speculators) realized that they are broken 3 times over. With Eurobonds Greece will continue borrow money until somebody realizes that Germany is broken three times over. Brilliant plan.

M.G. in Progress said...

Didn't those investors (mainly Germans) know that Greece was "broken"? They were speculators before as they are now. They are called bond vigilantes but they did not do the right job before and now without Euro-bonds will be worser...

Anonymous said...

> mainly Germans

Surely. After all everybody know Germans have an unlimited supply of money at hand.

Blaming the banks for lending money from them is perfectly credible ... if you happen to be 12 years old and not capable of making decisions for yourself.

But since you're argument is that borrowing people Greece was an evil deed in the first place why not stop it now and let Greece default. So they can work out how to uphold their lifestyle on their own. And everybody else is invited to try the same. I'd rather spend my tax money to bail out my own banks once than Greece year after year until the sun burns out.

M.G. in Progress said...

Greece has already defaulted and should have been done before....
http://mgiannini.blogspot.com/2010/03/money-creation-for-nothing-or-let.html

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