"We believe a transmission mechanism exists between Euro sovereign risks and the global financial system. The possibility of Greece (or another problem country) becoming a systemic threat is a nonzero probability. However, we do feel that central banks across the globe have their eyes wide open at the problem, and this diminishes the probability that such contagion could occur".
OK, now we want to know who is the Mr. Madoff of Greece’s sovereign debt Ponzi scheme as suggested here and here.
Bankers and central bankers are still hanging around in “business as usual mode” always saying “oh no, it’s not my fault, because to the best of my knowledge I do not know what people under my supervision and control are doing…”. EU institutions are not any better as officials do not seem to know their PIGS.I still contend that the recession is uncovering what auditors (and I add economists/statisticians) could not (or better did not want).
Since foreign banks own some 70% of Greek debt, it appears clear that “market structures helped overcome information asymmetries and sustained the development of Greece sovereign debt”, under very peculiar conditions which can explain the incentives to fraud in the market for lemons of sovereign bonds.If we are sure that PIGS cannot fly we should also be aware that Black Swan can (with non zero probability).
Thursday, February 18, 2010
PIGS cannot fly but Black Swans do
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