Thursday, May 28, 2009

Papi chulo does not reply to questions

When I listen to this music I think of Italy's Prime Minister Berlusconi and his parties.

Is he "papi" and is he chulo?

Tuesday, May 26, 2009

G8 Summit in Abruzzo: the case for "Shooting Silvio's" government



I have recently read that PLAYBOY magazine is for sale. I believe that Berlusconi should buy it so he can have all girls he wants and replace the owner Hugh Hefner who is 83-year-old! Italy's Prime Minister will not need to look elsewhere for pleasure or have to explain relations with teen. Everything will be transparent and Berlusconi will not have to answer anymore to the 10 questions asked by La Repubblica.

If Berlusconi can manage PLAYBOY's bunnies he will have economies of scale and synergies with its own media empire and his sake of pleasure.

Having said that, I contend that there is a cogent case for shooting Silvio's government before G8 summit in Abruzzo next July. Italy cannot afford to offer the world sad images of destruction (by the earthquake in Abruzzo) and destruction of its image (by its Prime Minister Berlusconi).

Berlusconi should not be shielded anymore, like in the Mills' corruption case, otherwise Italy will never move from its infection point, construed by Berlusconi's himself, to the turning point.

BERLUSCONI SHOULD RESIGN OR IMPEACHMENT for Italy's sake!
Once again as The Economist wrote he is and remains "unfit to lead" Italy and G8.

Wednesday, May 13, 2009

Inflection and infection points: ironies and incovenient truths

In the last days the world has been confronting few ironies and some inconvenient truths.

"We are, as far as growth is concerned, around the inflection point in the cycle" and the international economic downturn is easing, said Trichet, speaking in his capacity as chairman of the Global Economy Meeting at the Bank for International Settlements.
By definition, a turning point is when a line changes direction. Moving from recession to recovery entails a shift from negative to positive GDP growth, so that’s a turning point. An inflection point is when the pace of growth accelerates or decelerates (just the so called second derivative changes). If GDP is still contracting and growth is still negative, there is no reason to be so optimist if GDP is falling at decreasing rate. GDP growth can remain negative for a while. That's possibly the meaning of around the inflection point.

In fact the occurrence of an inflection point does not necessarily mean that the entire economic situation has dramatically changed.

Does it take just a few months to go from Great Depression II to "green shoots"? Along the same line do the result of stress test for banks just show that bankers did not screw up, the system being insolvent, but they were just screwing around with few trillions taxpayers' money? What Was the Point Again?

Moving from inflection points to infection points, the irony is at it's best when Swine Flu is being reported to be pandemic. A pandemic (from Greek παν pan all + δήμος demos people) is an epidemic of infectious disease that spreads through populations across a large region; for instance a continent, or even worldwide. A few people get the swine flu and everybody wants to wear a mask. Millions people have AIDS and somebody, like recently the Pope, is still questioning the use of condom. So the issue is how we move around the infection point.

Then we come to another kind of infection, of Italian politics and economy, called Berlusconi. Berlusconi is one of those illnesses to be cured by vaccine. To get over Berlusconi you need a good injection of Berlusconi, said once one of the most respected journalist Indro Montanelli. He was wrong when he predicted that Berlusconi’s election would be a good thing. Yet the point is to know what he meant for good injection to get over. Italian GDP and international image of the country continue to decline, but Berlusconi is still too popular despite his divorce and Italians' approval rating remains incredibly still too high, although hopefully and slowly declining, looking at the country and Prime Minister performances. I still contend that there is a cogent case for "shooting Silvio's" government. Yet, what kind of vaccine should Italians get? When will it be at least the inflection point of Italian economy and politics, that is the line changes direction?
I still look forward to the turning point for the world economy and Italian illnesses, including Berlusconi.

Friday, May 1, 2009

Does the world need an auto industry?

At the NY Times Room for Debate, the question is Does the U.S. Need an Auto Industry?

The question follows up on bailouts of car companies and consolidation and alliances in the car sector.

What a dumb question! Why don't we first ask and reply to the question as to whether we really need autos at all?

I still contend that we serve better any national, including defense, interest with less cars rather than more. Very simple: less cars means less energy and oil are needed. Less oil means less reasons to go to war. What a strategic thinking is this?
It's just simple green economics in the best interest of climate change as we may discover that fuel effciency is not enough.

Updates here and here
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